In preparation for COP 15 in Copenhagen, I have been thinking about the twofold nature of many of the perspectives that we are likely to address:
1. Climate believer versus sceptic. This is even hard to label, as I do not count myself a "believer" at all but simply someone convinced by the large amount of evidence - though others say the same on the other side. Nevertheless, the CRU scandal has made this much more prominent that in previous years.
2. Developed countries versus developing. This terminology is even more loaded and in certain fora I would be roundly castigated for this language. But the split is real and probably the major battle lines in COP are drawn on this one. Developed countries need to reduce their emissions and account for their historical role in loading the atmosphere over the past two centuries but require developing countries to lock in with reductions. Developing countries insist on deeper reductions and are wary of legally-binding requirements.
3. Poverty-reduction versus climate action. Yes, I know, everyone says that they can work together (and they can) or indeed that they can not be done separately (a recent Times of India post said as much) but in the battle for budgets, political air-space and on-the-ground activity, these two play off against each other in reality in many places.
4. National governments versus regional and local governments. Well, this had to be in there. In the midst of all of the endless negotiations, cities like Ann Arbor just keep on doing the work. How could this play out in the COP? I see little evidence of real impact but I hope that if we are to continue to have a stand-off, then we at least ensure that cities that can act right now are resourced to do so.
5. Business development versus turbo-charged aid. There are many business opportunities in the climate changed world and market mechanisms such as emissions trading schemes can encourage them (and for example create new Chinese global groups in turbine manufacturing). But many others focus on the political or moral dimensions of the challenge and criticise the role of capitalism as bringing us further problems.
6. Nuclear versus non-nuclear. This takes us to a growing battle - one that has simmered for some time in previous COPs but is becoming more pressing as the nuclear industry ramps up globally. Few now talk about nuclear as THE answer (as in: power too cheap to meter) but it is increasingly talked about as one of the strategies that needs to be used.
So there we have it. A testing time for us all coming up...
